Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
